Putting together a football team is a bit like putting together a puzzle with no reference picture and no final photo you’re trying to reveal. Each of the pieces fits together in some way or another, and the picture is determined by how well you find the complementary pieces and put them together. But some of those pieces are more important than others. They’re corner pieces that fit in one specific way and give your end goal structure. This week, Penn State lost a corner piece in safety KJ Winston.

However, to understand how Penn State head coach James Franklin and his staff can go about putting a new puzzle together, we need to understand the first picture and what each piece does. Only then can we fully mix this metaphor and get to the nuts and bolts of replacing Winston in the larger picture.

Understanding some key terms

To understand what kind of blow it is to lose Winston, we need to understand the architecture of the Penn State defense. Here is a general breakdown of the responsibilities and, therefore, the skills needed for each position

Penn State safety positions

Boundary: This safety lines up over the top of the tackle box on the short side of the field or to the strength of the formation. He has more run support responsibilities but can also play a single high or free safety role in certain coverages. The boundary safety also covers tight ends when they line up to his side of the field in man coverage.

Field: Plays to the long side of the field or the passing strength of the formation. This player needs man coverage skills to cover the slot and also deep free safety responsibility in certain zone coverages. He can also play deep free safety if the defensive call asks the boundary safety to fill in the run, blitz, or cover slot players in the boundary.

Lion: A hybridized slot safety who lines up underneath the coverage umbrella of the field and boundary safeties but can also play in deep coverage, slot coverage, or fill the run like a field linebacker. While this position isn’t unique to Tom Allen’s defense, the new Penn State defensive coordinator leans on the safety aspects of this position and allows them to float between the second and third levels of the defense.

Penn State is lean at safety despite having three starters

Now that we understand their roles, we can explain the issue of replacing Winston. Here’s the Penn State depth chart, expressed by snaps through the first two games.

Arranging the depth chart this way shows Winston and Jaylen Reed’s importance to the overall scheme. Winston took nearly every snap as the boundary safety through the season’s first five quarters. When the team switches to base personnel, meaning three linebackers, Reed flips back to the field safety role, and Wheatley heads to the sidelines.

So not only did Penn State lose its starting boundary safety, it also lost the ability to play Reed to the field or at the Lion. Effectively, the team lost two starters in one moment.

However, it’s also incorrect to diminish Zakee Wheatley’s role on the team. He played 55 snaps in the game against West Virginia, which was only bested by Reed (59) and Winston (60). He’s an integral part of the plan this year and the team prefers to be in its nickel defense.

Best-case scenario is out the window

The reality is pretty clear when you look at the depth chart listed above. Penn State doesn’t have a viable backup for Winston with the skills to perform his role. Now, they must steal from other positions in order to make the boundary role, which is a cornerstone piece of the defensive structure, whole.

Against Bowling Green, Allen moved Reed over to the boundary, started Wheatley at the field, and plugged cornerback Cam Miller into the Lion slot.

However, there’s an important sleight of hand here. The “Lion” is a mirage. There’s no backup to Reed, who has his set of tackling, coverage, and playmaking skills. The moment Miller takes over that slot, the defense reverts to a plain nickel defense with the same theoretical weaknesses as any team that takes a linebacker off the field. While the easiest and most likely path forward is Miller replacing Reed, let’s explore other options.

How could they recapture that magic? Let’s run through a few scenarios

Play traditional defense

Franklin already outlined the most realistic scenario. They’ll need to revert to a 4-3 defense with three linebackers against run-adept personnel and then swap out a linebacker for Miller in passing situations. From that standpoint it’s business as usual for Penn State, who lived in this world a year ago. Curtis Jacobs was the team’s field linebacker until Daequan Hardy found his way to the field on passing downs. This year, that player is Dom DeLuca.

While DeLuca played that role well in 2023 as a rotational player, it’s not ideal for him to be a full-time starter. He can play better than he is at the moment, but even now he was a rotational player behind Reed, to the field.

The best player for that job would be Will linebacker Tony Rojas. But Will, like the boundary safety, is a foundational defense piece. To move Rojas, you must feel good about the player you’re replacing him with. This is why Ta’Mere Robinson’s development this fall is now essential. Robinson has the athletic skill to play Will in spot duty when Rojas is elsewhere.

Rojas is so athletic and has performed so well in coverage that he might be the team’s best “safety” alternative to give you the best of both worlds.

Dejuan Lane steps into the fold

In a long-term projection, Dejuan Lane may make a great replacement for Winston as a successor in the boundary. But right now, he’s getting an education on football at the slightly easier (being a very relative word here) position on the field. If he finds his way into the lineup, it could mean that safeties coach Anthony Poindexter could move Wheatley to the boundary – a tenuous fit based on his run support so far. But that would allow Reed to move back to the Lion position more regularly. It is possible to fast-track Lane to the boundary, but it would be a first.

Moving pieces that fit

Beyond the issues of finding the perfect fit, Penn State needs bodies at safety. Franklin mentioned Wednesday evening that freshman Antoine Belgrave-Shorter will get looks at safety. Again, that’s likely in the field position, further suggesting that Wheatley is the next man up to the boundary. That gives us the rosy notion that Penn State is on the precipice of having a freshman safety backing up a freshman safety. But Belgrave-Shorter is a physical tackler and has the tools to do it.

Other ideas that are great, but probably won’t work

Finally, we’ve reached the bucket of ideas that are great but steal from other corner pieces of the defense. Abdul Carter’s move back to linebacker is obvious, but Nate Bauer already outlined the issues with that.

The other sneaky-good fit would be AJ Harris at the Lion. Harris is tenacious, hits like a safety, and covers very well. However, when you’re building a football team, outside cornerback is a top-five (if not top-two) position that you stock first.

Yet, Penn State felt good about six cornerbacks during Fall camp. So far, Harris and Jalen Kimber have moved to the top of that list and have played the most snaps. All of this brings us back to Miller and Elliot Washington. Miller got a start in the Bowling Green game but struggled out of the gate and then had to move inside to replace Reed in the slot. Can he and Harris flip positions?

If not, Elliot Washington has looked good, albeit in only 46 snaps this year. Having one of those two players step up would be the most seamless transition that relies less on freshmen and keeps the team’s defensive identity intact.

We’ll see the new plan’s first iteration on Saturday.

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