The Longhorns are heavy favorites and can attack the Bulldogs to put the game away early.

The No. 1 Texas Longhorns are heavy favorites heading into their SEC debut against the Mississippi State Bulldogs, thanks to a combination of the Longhorns’ strong play early in the season and Mississippi State’s struggles through the first four weeks. The Bulldogs will be without the services of their starting quarterback in the contest, while it is still unknown who will be in the backfield for Texas as Quinn Ewers battles back from an injury of his own.

Regardless of who is in the backfield for Texas, the formula for success is relatively simple for Texas to execute.

Explosive pass plays

It’s clear that Arch Manning in place of Quinn Ewers is comfortable taking deep shots, whether that was a product of the competition or the player remains to be seen. In his one start, Manning averaged 8.9 yards per attempt with an average depth of target of 14.8 yards. Ewers is not far behind on yards per attempt, with 8.7 yards per attempt on the season, but hit a high point of 11.6 yards per attempt against UTSA before leaving with an injury.

The Bulldogs’ defense has been susceptible in pass defense this year, ranking No. 71 in the country defensively at 7.0 yards per attempt and 130th in opposing completion percentage at 71.1 percent. The inability to stop opponents truly shows up on a per-play basis, with the Bulldogs giving up 1.36 points per completed pass. However, Mississippi State has not given up a completion of longer than 40 yards and have allowed just two passes of more than 30 yards — so while the secondary has struggled overall, they have kept opponents in front of them.

Regardless of the quarterback, the Longhorns have the ability to light up the scoreboard in their SEC opener and put the game away quickly, whether it’s chewing up yardage on high-percentage passes to get playmakers the ball in space or trying to become the first team to regularly take the top off the Bulldogs’ defense.

Turnovers

The biggest blemish on the Texas win over ULM a week ago was the two avoidable interceptions from Manning. The first-time starter seemingly forced the ball into smaller windows trying to push the ball downfield, rather than taking easier completions shorter in the field. Mississippi State hasn’t been a ball-hawking defense thus far this year, with just one interception, but even the most inept secondary can come away with an interception if the quarterback puts the ball in unnecessary peril.

On the other side of the ball, Texas is facing a quarterback making their first start and has an opportunity to bolster its already gaudy numbers — the Longhorns are tied for No. 4 in the nation for Interceptions with seven this year, good enough for No. 15 in total turnovers forced. Mississippi State has only thrown one interception, but that was with the experienced Blake Shapen at the helm with true freshman Michael Van Buren, now the starter following Shapen’s injury, having only attempted 13 career passes, all in last week’s loss to Florida.

Sacks and TFL

Another potential frustration for the Longhorns in Manning’s first start was the number of hits he took and his penchant for holding onto the ball, searching for those deep shots.

Texas is tied for No. 17 in sacks allowed this year, giving up less than one per game, but Manning took several unnecessary shots against Louisiana-Monroe. And while Mississippi State is near the bottom of the country in total sacks at No. 124, it’s not hard to imagine that the athletes for the Bulldogs are more able to get home than ULM. The Texas offensive line has pass protected at such a high level that it’s on the quarterback to get the ball out on time and on target to avoid those hits.

Ewers has done it well over the last season-plus, putting in perspective just how much growth Manning still has left in that regard.