The movement’s leader Yahya Sinwar is reportedly betting on West Jerusalem getting distracted and scaling back operations in Gaza

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar wants Israel dragged into a wider regional conflict, The New York Times claimed on Friday, citing US intelligence sources. According to their assessment, a “bigger war” in the Middle East would distract West Jerusalem and put pressure on the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), forcing it to shift focus from Gaza to other fronts.

Next week marks one year since Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, which responded by declaring war on the militant group and imposing a near-total siege on Gaza. Israel and Hamas have since held several rounds of indirect talks in Qatar aimed at brokering a cease-fire, but they have so far failed to bear fruit.

According to officials who spoke to the newpaper, the negotiations are unlikely to yield meaningful results anytime soon, as Hamas’ new leader, Sinwar, allegedly “has no intention of reaching a deal” with Israel at all. Some Israeli officials have questioned whether Sinwar is alive, but NYT sources said the US had no evidence to the contrary.

According to the sources, Sinwar is a far more “inflexible” negotiator than his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran this summer – allegedly by Israel. Sinwar has also reportedly chosen to sit out the current stage of the fighting, hoping that Israel will shift its military focus to Iran and Lebanon-based Hezbollah, giving Hamas an opportunity to regroup.

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Both Iran and Hezbollah have backed Hamas in the war, but their military involvement has so far been limited. The situation escalated in recent weeks however, after Israel announced “a new phase” of its war against militant groups and launched a ground operation in Lebanon. It followed the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, allegedly by West Jerusalem. In response, Iran launched a massive missile attack on Israel earlier this week.

Israeli operations in Gaza are “slowing,” with the IDF now maintaining just a few positions in the enclave, US officials told NYT. They also claimed that fighting in southern Lebanon has already proven difficult for Israel, and predicted that Sinwar’s alleged strategy could succeed, presenting Israel with a “multifront war” if the fighting “continues to be intense.” However, the officials doubt Iran would start a full-blown war against the Jewish state, as the repercussions would be too severe.

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“Iran will hold a grudge for Nasrallah’s killing. But their options are limited. I don’t see Iran going toe to toe with Israel anytime soon,” Scott D. Berrier, former head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, told the outlet.