• Apollo CEO Marc Rowan has transformed Apollo since he took over as CEO in 2021.
• Now, he’s being floated as a potential Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump.
• Here’s what could happen to Rowan’s vision if he leaves and who might fill his shoes.

Since Marc Rowan took over Apollo Global Management in 2021, he’s transformed the firm — sending the stock skyrocketing.

Now, the 62-year-old CEO is being floated as a potential candidate for Treasury Secretary under Donald Trump, raising questions about who could take his place, how his departure could impact the firm’s ambitious growth plans, and how Apollo might benefit from the Trump White House.

Business Insider spoke to Chris Kotowski, a stock research analyst who covers Apollo for Oppenheimer. He said Rowan’s five-year plan for Apollo, which includes doubling its lending business to $1.2 trillion by 2029, would proceed without him.

“I don’t think that the vision changes any time soon if Rowan were to leave,” Kotowkski told BI. “While Marc is in many ways the visionary leader, I think that APO is pretty institutionalized now and will get on fine without the founder,” he said, referring to the company by its stock ticker.

Contenders to take over the top role, Kotowski said, include Apollo copresidents Scott Kleinman and Jim Zelter, as well as Grant Kvalheim, president of Apollo’s insurance arm Athene, which has provided Apollo capital for its burgeoning lending business.

“The most likely outcome, in my view, is that the two copresidents, Scott Kleinman and Jim Zelter, would be made coCEOs,” Kotowski told BI.

Representatives for Apollo didn’t return a request for comment on Rowan’s plans or the firm’s succession plans.

Rowan is Apollo’s second CEO since the firm was founded in 1990. Founder Leon Black ran the firm as CEO until he stepped down in 2021 amid a cloud over his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. An independent investigation ordered by Apollo found Black had paid the convicted sex offender and financier $158 million in fees over the years for financial advice and tax planning (Black has previously told investors “I deeply regret” his involvement with Epstein).

Josh Harris, another founder, was also reportedly in the running for CEO, but Rowan got the job.

Black and Harris, owner of the Washington Commanders and other sports teams, remain large shareholders of Apollo with 7.5% and 6.0% stakes respectively. Rowan, also a founder, owns 6.1%.

Kotowski, however, ruled out any suggestion that either Black or Harris would reenter the picture should Rowan leave.

“Black and Harris are almost certainly not coming back,” Kotowski said.

Representatives for both men declined to comment.

Since taking over the top job, Rowan’s credit strategy has become the envy of the industry. Apollo’s 2022 merger with Athene brought life insurance and retirement capital to Apollo’s balance sheet, which it has leveraged to become the world’s largest private lender.

This extra capital helped Apollo thrive during the last few years, stepping in to lend to corporate clients while banks and others took a back seat. Apollo has become the leader of an industry boom in private credit, which now makes up $598 billion of the firm’s $733 billion of assets under management.

In a presentation to investors in October, Rowan unveiled plans to double down on the firm’s lending business. More recently, he explained how the firm plans to attract more insurance dollars, which will fund the lending business, by expanding its annuity products for retirees.

Kleinman has worked at Apollo since 1996, and was named lead partner for private equity at the firm in 2009. Zelter, longtime leader of credit at Apollo, joined the company in 2006 after a long career at Citigroup where he rose to become CIO of alternative investments.

The men were named copresidents in 2018.

Kotowski called Kvalheim, president of Athene and CEO of Athene USA, a “dark horse” candidate, saying his “betting would generally be on Kleinman and Zelter.”

Regardless of whether Rowan leaves or not, his vision could be helped by the Trump administration. Rowan often points to Australia’s retirement model, which has been open to more private investment for decades and outperforms the American model, as a model that would boost Apollo’s growth.

Trump previously opened up some 401(k) investing to private equity in 2020, and Rowan has signaled hope that it could expand further.

“Should we get access to 401(k) through broad-based reform or regulatory change or regulatory encouragement, I believe that would be upside not just for us, but for the entire industry,” Rowan said earlier this month.

Of course, if Rowan were to leave, he likely would have to sell his 6.1% share in Apollo, worth nearly $6 billion, and have his assets put into a blind trust. It’s unclear what that could do to the stock price, but given Apollo’s recent stellar performance, it’s not a bad time to divest.