Houston ISD is on track in 2024-25 to see its largest single-year enrollment loss since the pandemic, with the majority of student departures coming from campuses overhauled under a controversial new model implemented by state-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles.

Records obtained by the Houston Landing show HISD enrolled about 173,900 students in the fourth week of this school year, down from 182,500 at the same point last school year. 

The 8,600-student decline equals roughly 5 percent of the student population. If the enrollment trend holds through late October, when Texas schools take their official enrollment tallies, it would top the 3 percent decline seen in 2023-24, the steepest in recent years.

HISD typically continues to add more students through September and October. Last school year, for example, HISD’s enrollment eventually reached 184,100 by late October, up about 1,600 students from the fourth week of school. 

If HISD follows similar trends this year, its final count would total roughly 176,000 — the lowest level in at least a half-century, according to various historical reports. The drop marks the fifth consecutive year of an enrollment skid in Texas’ largest district and continues a nearly decade-long trend of student losses.

The numbers indicate the 130 schools in Miles’ transformation model — which aims to boost academics through new teaching practices, revamped curriculums and increased teacher pay — have lost about 5,300 children, or 7 percent of their enrollment, in the first month of classes. Eighty-five of those schools saw those changes last school year, while 45 were added to the overhaul in August.

Meanwhile, the 141 schools that have not been targeted for overhaul have so far lost about 1,500 students, or 1.5 percent of their total. A virtual charter school operated through a contract with HISD, which serves students across the state, accounted for the other 1,900 departed students.

It remains unclear exactly what drove the exodus, though it likely reflects a combination of factors including fewer school-age children living in HISD and more families choosing other educational options, such as private schools, charter schools and homeschooling. 

One of the Houston area’s largest charter school networks, YES Prep Public Schools, reported that it added about 2,000 students this year, roughly twice its typical growth, according to early data obtained by the Landing. It is not immediately clear how many of those students came from HISD, though about three-quarters of its 17,600 students enrolled last year lived within HISD’s boundaries, according to state data.

HISD administrators wrote in an email that there is “no single reason or quick answer to explain enrollment trends.” District leaders argued the losses at overhauled schools reflect a long-term pattern, and it’s “far too early” to connect those losses to families’ positive or negative opinions of the transformation model.

“The campuses that are a part of (the overhaul) serve the highest needs students and historically have experienced disproportionate student attrition compared to their non-(overhauled) counterparts, even before the pandemic,” HISD said. “We hope that through robust and aligned curriculum, instruction, and student support, we can reverse the enrollment trends we’ve seen for years at these campuses.”

The enrollment losses could hurt district finances, likely leading to at least $50 million less in funding. Texas primarily funds public school districts based on the number of students attending them.

HISD officials projected enrollment losses totaling about 4,000 students this year when they crafted their 2024-25 budget, which included slashing about $500 million, or one-fifth of the district’s spending on operations, due to an impending funding cliff.  

Losing another 4,000-plus students could force HISD to find other ways to make up a larger funding gap, such as dipping deeper into its reserves or identifying additional budget cuts, such as staff layoffs. However, HISD has often underestimated its revenues or overestimated its spending in recent years, so it’s not immediately clear if students and staff will see an impact from lower-than-expected enrollment.

The data obtained by the Landing appear to confirm an early finding first reported by the Houston Chronicle, which showed HISD was about 9,000 students behind previous years’ enrollment milestones after the first week of school. 

At the time, Miles said it was too soon to get an accurate read on the number of students in the district, especially because HISD had started classes nearly two weeks earlier than in prior years following  a calendar change made by the district’s state-appointed school board. He said counts taken after Labor Day would be more reliable.

The Landing averaged HISD’s enrollment figures for the week after Labor Day, which was the fourth week of school, and compared that total to the same time period in previous years, finding a level of student losses roughly consistent with the first-week trends.

Asher Lehrer-Small covers Houston ISD for the Landing. Reach him at asher@houstonlanding.org.

The post Houston ISD enrollment on track to plummet 5 percent this year, largest drop since pandemic appeared first on Houston Landing.