Monday Huddle: Pivot Point

Kentucky failed the test in Week 7. The Wildcats returned in Week 8 and flunked the test against Florida. In Saturday’s blowout loss in The Swamp, we saw UK muster only seven offensive points in five created scoring opportunities and allow 279 passing yards on 15 attempts with talented true freshman quarterback DJ Lagway averaging 18.5 yards per attempt despite only completing seven passes in the game. Florida also rolled up 208 non-sack rushing yards.

Saturday night at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium was a disaster for Mark Stoops and his football program. Kentucky is now 3-4 (1-4) with five games to play. The program’s eight-year bowl streak is in serious jeopardy and the big picture direction of this organization certainly appears to be on a bad trend.

It seems like we’ve reached a pivot point for the season and maybe for the future. Disaster feels almost certain if Kentucky drops another SEC home game on Saturday night at Kroger Field. Can Kentucky salvage this season? We will get our answer this weekend.

KSR’s Monday Huddle sets the stage for a week where this football program will be surrounded by doubt and negativity.

First Down: Why can’t the Kentucky offense finish drives?

The Kentucky offense enters Week 9 ranked No. 87 overall in points per drive (1.94). Scoring points has always been a problem during the Mark Stoops era and new offensive coordinator Bush Hamdan is having some of the same problems in his first season in Lexington holding the play sheet. The inability to finish stands out the most.

Kentucky currently ranks No. 99 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage (55%). That’s ahead of only South Carolina in the SEC. The Wildcats are even having issues in the extended red zone once earning a first-and-10 inside the opposing team’s 40-yard line.

Against Vanderbilt and Florida, we saw Kentucky generated 10 scoring opportunities in 19 non-kneel possessions. Yet, the Wildcats only scored 20 total points. If not for two explosive play touchdowns from Barion Brown in Gainesville, Saturday could’ve looked much worse.

We’ve seen Kentucky have the ball inside the five twice in the last two weeks and leave each possession with zero points. The Wildcats have only scored one or less offensive touchdown in three SEC games. Hamdan’s offense could only muster two offensive touchdowns against Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. Ending drives in the paint is a serious issue.

What is going on in the red zone? The biggest thing that stands out is self-inflicted mistakes but it does feel like the offense lacks a go-to guy. Kentucky is asking a lot of Demie Sumo-Karngbaye and there have been some struggles with the starting tailback in short-yardage. Against Florida, Kentucky was 1-for-4 on third-and-short and that’s not even counting a false start by Jager Burton in the first series and a failed fourth down attempt in the low red zone.

But the biggest issue might be lack of explosive plays. Kentucky currently ranks No. 111 nationally in plays of 20-plus yards (24). Oklahoma is the only SEC offense ranked behind Kentucky. The Wildcats have only produced one play of 50-plus yards and that is only ahead of four teams nationally. This is an offense with a decent batting percentage but the Cats are woeful with runners in scoring position and simply do not produce extra-base hits. It’s hard to score points when you’re bad at both.

There are many issues with this program right now but the biggest issue facing this current team is the offense’s inability to finish drives. The Wildcats rank a decent No. 55 in offensive success rate (43.2%) and that is allowing them to create scoring opportunities, but the problems will remain big problems until Kentucky starts scoring more points.

What is the answer to fixing this problem? I’m not sure Kentucky knows but we could start to see Ohio State tailback transfer Chip Trayanum on the field more in short-yardage. Could he become the drive closer? Odds are this will remain a long-term issue since the lack of explosive plays eliminate just about any room for error.

Second Down: The pass defense is becoming an issue again

Pass defense was a major problem for the Kentucky football program in 2023. The Wildcats finished the season ranked sub-100 in passes defended per game (No. 105), success rate (No. 123), and completion percentage (No. 127). The Wildcats did a fair job at eliminating explosives, but teams stayed ahead of the chains by completing short passes for good gains consistently.

The pass defense is certainly improved but is certainly looking like a weakness again in 2024.

Kentucky enters Week 9 ranking sub-60 in a ton of statistical metrics.

• EPA/Dropback: -0.03 (No. 60 overall)
• Success Rate: 40.1% (No. 66 overall)
• Completion Percentage: 64.2% (No. 104 overall)
• Yards Per Dropback: 8.26 (No. 127 overall)
• Yards Per Attempt: 9.1 (No. 129 overall)

The down-to-down efficiency has taken a leap but Kentucky has sacrificed its typical big-play prevention and that has come at a cost. South Carolina, Ole Miss, and Florida all averaged over nine yards per attempt against this passing defense with South Carolina and Florida going north of 11 yards per attempt. Kentucky is getting chunked through the air.

After an awful performance against Florida, the Wildcats are now ranked No. 102 nationally in 20-plus yard pass plays allowed (25). This has typically been a strength for Brad White‘s defense in Lexington. That is not the case this season.

Kentucky was just shredded by DJ Lagway for five completions of 40-plus yards. There are some concerns on the backend and the schedule will not let up.

Auburn, Louisville, and Texas each rank in the top 30 nationally in pass plays of 20-plus yards. A stout Kentucky defense now has a clear weakness that could be exposed by multiple offenses on the schedule. That is highly concerning heading into a very difficult stretch.

Third Down: How do problems get fixed?

This Kentucky football team has a lot of problems. The Wildcats cannot create explosive plays or score points on offense. The defense has been leaky against the pass. The kicking game now has some real issues on field goals and extra points.

The Kentucky football program also has a ton of issues. The Wildcats again have fallen in a fairly big hole and currently have their worst overall record entering this point of the season since 2019. We saw Kentucky fall in a similar hole in 2016. Both of those years included a change at quarterback and a schematic shift. Neither of those are likely at the moment.

The biggest problem facing this organization is that it’s hard to see how this improves both in the short term and the long term. Since beating Iowa in the Citrus Bowl to cap off a 10-win season in 2021, this program is 17-16 overall with a 9-16 record against power conference foes. Teams that the Wildcats used to consistently beat (Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt) now all own the most recent win in each series. Kentucky is a combined 4-7 against those teams since 2022. Kentucky is losing ground quickly as a program.

Mark Stoops made some big changes in the offseason by bringing in Bush Hamdan and Eric Wolford to answer the offensive coordinator instability and offensive line talent accumulation plus development problems. You’re not going to pull the plug on what has been an overall good defensive operation under Brad White. Kentucky’s high school recruiting is operating at an all-time high in the Stoops era and this program consistently does a good job in the transfer portal.

How does this thing flip? It’s hard to see an answer and that makes both the present and the future of this program extremely worrisome.

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The week ahead at KSR

The sixth conference game of the season has arrived, and KSR will provide the Big Blue Nation with in-depth pregame content from now until kickoff arrives on Saturday night at Kroger Field.

We will have full coverage of Mark Stoops’ press conference on Monday afternoon. From there, practice reports and podcasts will take over as Saturday approaches. Our first availability report of the week will drop on Wednesday where we will learn the status of cornerback Maxwell Hairston.

Over at KSR+, our in-depth scouting report on Auburn will go live on Thursday along with some more pregame content. Is Kentucky really going to finish this season winless at home against SEC competition?

Want more Kentucky football intel? Join KSR Plus for the most comprehensive coverage of the Cats on the internet. With a KSR membership, you get access to bonus content and KSBoard, KSR’s message board, to chat with fellow Cats fans and get exclusive scoop.

Are things going to get worse for this football program before they get better? We will find out on Saturday night in the second and final Keeneland double-dip.

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