ESPN Playoff Predictor: Alabama’s CFP chances after Tennessee loss

For the first time since 2007, Alabama has two losses before the month of November.

The Crimson Tide lost on the road at Tennessee, 24-17, on Saturday in Knoxville, dropping its record to 5-2 (2-2 SEC) in Kalen DeBoer’s first season as the head coach. After the loss, which was the second in three games, DeBoer voiced his displeasure with the performance.

“Obviously a tough loss, a frustrating loss,” DeBoer said. “We’ve had two now. And we just can’t play team football. We can’t bring it together. One side of the ball has highlight moments, and the other side stumbles and some missed opportunities. 

“We try to look inward after every game, and we gotta continue to do the same. I know we’ve got a locker room that’s hurting. I feel like there’s always, I guess, a common feel in the locker room after a loss. But these guys, no doubt in my mind, that they pour everything into the preparation. Just frustrating we can’t get over the hump.”

Alabama fell to No. 15 in the AP Top 25 Poll on Sunday, which marked its lowest ranking since the 2010 season. Although the Crimson Tide continues to trend downward after a significant win over Georgia, its postseason hopes are not completely dead, at least not yet.

ESPN’s Football Power Index still gives the Crimson Tide a 44.3 percent chance at making the 12-team playoff field. That is the 12th-best percentage in the country, and with the current odds, Alabama would be one of four teams to play in the College Football Playoff.

To earn a spot in the playoff, though, the Tide must win the rest of its regular-season games. Alabama will host No. 21 Missouri next weekend before its second and final bye week. Then, the Crimson Tide will travel to No. 8 LSU on Nov. 9, play host to Mercer on Nov. 16, travel to Oklahoma on Nov. 23 and end its regular-season slate at home versus rival Auburn.

ESPN’s Football Power Index currently gives Alabama a 33.3 percent chance to win out. The ESPN Playoff Predictor tabbed Missouri, LSU and Oklahoma as the toughest games remaining on the Tide’s schedule but believes it will win all three after its second loss – 82 percent against Missouri, 62 percent against LSU and 78 percent against Oklahoma.

While it is certainly putting the cart before the horse, the Tide also has a 9.3 percent chance to make the CFP national championship game and a 5.2 percent chance to win the title. Both are actually higher than Alabama winning the SEC Championship Game (4.6 percent).

The Crimson Tide is one win away from reaching bowl eligibility, and some projections have Alabama making the College Football Playoff. While some, on the other hand, do not.

CBS Sports: First round, No. 9 BYU at No. 8 Alabama

ESPN: Las Vegas Bowl, vs. Arizona

247Sports: Gator Bowl, vs. Pittsburgh

Alabama will look to break its recent streak of poor performances when it welcomes Missouri to Tuscaloosa for its 2024 Homecoming game. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30 p.m. CT (ABC).

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