1,000 season simulations projects Kentucky’s ceiling to be the Final Four

The Internet is a swamp for many things, and college basketball projections have their own special section in the marsh. Most of these prognostications come from honest and knowledgeable professionals, but these fools would admit most of their foresight is mostly a collection of educated guesses. That is not the case with stat guru, Evan Miya, who relies on math more than opinion. His recent preseason simulations should invoke optimism for Kentucky fans.

Miya ran 1,000 college basketball season simulations and then took the 5th and 95th percentile of each team’s finish to determine their ceiling and floor. For Kentucky, this resulted in a floor of 125th in the country (not so great) but a ceiling of 4th in the country (much, much better).

A Final Four berth (or to throw out the randomness of the tournament, a 1 seed) in Mark Pope’s first season would be incredible, but it is also worth mentioning that Kentucky’s median outcome throughout the 1,000 simulations was 34th. If that were the case, that equates to an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tournaments and a first-weekend exit.

Kentucky ranks 23rd in the AP preseason poll, so finishing 34th would be a slip, but let’s be honest: even computers and math can’t truly predict how well a team put together from scratch will play together.

Or how well they shoot.

Miya’s simulations project only six teams with a ceiling of best in the country: Alabama, Duke, Gonzaga, Kansas, Houston, and Iowa State. Three of those teams are on Kentucky’s schedule this season, so there will be no shortage of opportunities for Kentucky to make a statement.

Prediction season is almost over. The real games start soon.

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