Rural North Carolinians are key for Trump’s election chances in the swing state. Hurricane Helene upended their lives.

• Hurricane Helene battered rural mountain towns in North Carolina, a key voting bloc for Trump.
• Some analysts and candidates expect turnout to be lower in the region as people rebuild.
• North Carolina is a critical battleground state, with Trump and Harris polling neck-and-neck.

Three weeks after Hurricane Helene ravaged western North Carolina, hundreds of roads and bridges remain damaged or closed and tens of thousands of residents still don’t have running water. Many are displaced after losing their homes and businesses, while others are still clearing out muck and debris.

With many Helene survivors still in the thick of recovery, especially residents of rural mountain towns, political analysts and candidates told Business Insider they expect turnout to be lower in the state’s western region. The latest polls show that former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck, and North Carolina remains a critical battleground state for either candidate’s victory.

“Voting is not the top priority for a whole lot of people right now,” said Chris Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University. “Even among the most committed voters. If they don’t have drinkable water, their priorities have shuffled. So I expect voter turnout to be down in the most-affected counties.”

Cooper said his home was largely spared by Helene, but some family members who live in Asheville temporarily relocated to South Carolina. That includes his dad, who had planned to vote early and in-person but now must request a mail-in ballot.

Early voting began in North Carolina on October 17, and state election officials said in-person turnout topped a previous record set in 2020. At the county level, state election officials told BI that comparing this year’s numbers to 2020 wouldn’t be accurate due to several caveats, including that the absentee-by-mail voting period started two weeks earlier in 2020 than it did this year.

The rural mountain areas of North Carolina previously favored Trump. He won North Carolina by less than 75,000 votes in the 2020 presidential race, with strong support in areas outside urban centers. That included 11 of the 13 counties hardest-hit by Helene. The two exceptions were Buncombe County, where Asheville is located, and Watauga County.

The Democrats aim to flip historically red North Carolina, seeing a path in the rapidly growing suburban areas like Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Fayetteville. Harris is trying to win over Black and college educated voters, as well as women who oppose the state’s restrictive abortion law. But the aftermath of Helene has become a political lightning rod, with Trump attacking the Biden administration’s response.

Officials say North Carolinians know the importance of voting

The traditional ways to reach people, such as door knocking and social media, aren’t as accessible because of the destruction and spotty internet service. This has made it difficult for campaign staff to canvas and combat rumors.

Trump has spread disinformation, telling attendees at a campaign rally that Harris stole Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) disaster relief funding and spent it on housing for migrants. He also wrote on Truth Social that the federal government and Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, were going out of their way to not assist Republican-leaning areas.

The Biden administration and some GOP politicians have debunked the claims, including Rep. Chuck Edwards, a Republican who represents North Carolina’s 11th district, which was devastated by Helene.

Edwards told BI that he’s been working around the clock to connect survivors with the resources they need. He issued a statement on October 8, after being inundated with emails and calls from people upset about unfounded rumors.

“I was getting calls from people around the country who wanted to send personnel, equipment, and water, but worried it wouldn’t make it to the right location because of the rumors,” Edwards told BI. “Primarily, that FEMA was confiscating supplies and turning people away. There is absolutely no truth to that.”

Edwards added that even though folks are busy putting their lives back together, they understand that an important election is right around the corner. They are motivated to get out and vote for Trump, he said.

“They remember what our lives were like the day before the storm,” Edwards said, pointing to inflation, oil prices, and a crisis at the Southern border.

Edwards’ competitor, Rep. Caleb Rudow, is a Democrat who represents Buncombe county in the state legislature. He’s been canvassing and posting on social media, talking about the importance of this election, particularly after Helene.

Rudow said the state needs elected officials who want to solve the climate crisis, which is fueling more intense hurricanes. He also told BI that the relief work by state, local, and federal officials after Helene has shown the power of government in the wake of a disaster.

Rudow added that people are resilient, and part of recovery is getting life back to normal. That includes talking about these issues and voting.

Even so, people who’ve lost their homes and loved ones probably aren’t thinking about voting, said Bob Phillips, executive director at Common Cause North Carolina, a voter rights group. But it’s hard to predict how Helene will affect turnout.

North Carolina election officials made emergency changes to expand voting access for residents recovering from the storm.

“Helene will be a part of this election, and we’ll just have to see what the drop off is,” Phillips said.

Were you impacted by Hurricane Helene and want to share your voting story? Contact cboudreau@businessinsider.com.