Tennessee can’t afford to drop a game against either Alabama or Georgia if the Vols want to be assured of a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff Field, according to ESPN. The Vols came in at No. 3 in ESPN’s playoff ranking this week, but apparently they still have big work to do.

“Tennessee still has to play Alabama and Georgia,” ESPN’s Heather Dinich wrote, “and we saw how that just unfolded in Tuscaloosa. The Vols need to go 2-0 against those teams to avoid a true debate in the committee meeting room. 

“Without those wins, Tennessee will be counting on wins against NC State and OU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.”

Up Next: No. 4 Tennessee at Arkansas, Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Tennessee (4-0, 1-0 SEC), coming off a bye week following the 25-15 win at Oklahoma on September 21, goes to Arkansas (3-2, 1-1) on Saturday night.

The Vols moved up to No. 4 in both the Associated Press Top 25 and Coaches Poll on Sunday. Alabama was the new No. 1 in the AP Poll after the 41-34 win over Georgia Saturday night. The Bulldogs, who trailed 28-0 in Tuscaloosa before coming back to take a late lead, dropped from second to fifth. 

Tennessee returns home next week to host Florida before Alabama comes to Neyland Stadium on October 19. The Vols go to Georgia on November 16.

“Tennessee had a bye week but entered Saturday ranked No. 2 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric after wins against Oklahoma and NC State,” Dinich wrote. “The Vols were also No. 1 in the country in total efficiency, matching the statistics with the résumé and building their case as one of the most complete teams in the country. 

“Tennessee’s wins against Oklahoma and NC State — the highlights of their résumé — continued to hold value, as both of those opponents won their respective Week 5 games.”

ESPN: Vols 15% chance of earning a bye in College Football Playoff

Aside from Alabama and Georgia, Tennessee has remaining games against Kentucky (November 2), Mississippi State (November 9), UTEP (November 23) and at Vanderbilt (November 30).

ESPN’s projected playoff bracket this week has the Vols as the No. 6 seed, hosting a first-round game in Knoxville against No. 11 Michigan. 

“This shows how different the seeding can be from the committee’s ranking on Selection Day,” Dinich wrote, “as Tennessee was ranked No. 3. Because seeds 1-4 are reserved for conference champs, and the SEC runner-up earned the No. 5 seed, the Vols get bumped to No. 6. 

“They would still earn a first-round home game, but a bye isn’t out of the question moving forward. According to ESPN Research, Tennessee joins Texas and Alabama as the only SEC teams with at least a 15% chance of earning a first-round bye.”

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