Tennessee Football’s chance to make the College Football Playoff is up to 80%, according to ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. Only two teams have better chances, with Texas at 93% and Alabama at 84%. 

The Vols (4-0), coming off the 25-15 win at Oklahoma Saturday night, is ranked No. 5 in ESPN’s Football Power Index and No. 6 in ESPN’s SP+ rating. 

ESPN’s SP+, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” and is “intended to be predictive and forward-facing.”

The Football Power Index, similarly, is a measure of team strength, according to ESPN, that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward.

SP+ projects Vols to host Oregon in first round of College Football Playoff

The SP+ currently projects Tennessee as the No. 7 seed in the 12-team field, hosting No. 10 Oregon. Not only that, it has the Vols advancing to face No. 2 Ohio State in the Rose Bowl. 

Other games in the first round in the SP+ projection are No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 11 Missouri at No. 6 Alabama and No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Georgia.

The other projected quarterfinal matchups are No. 1 Texas vs. No. 8 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, No. 4 Utah vs. No. 5 Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl and No. 3 Miami vs. No. 6 Alabama in the Peach Bowl. 

The semifinals were Texas vs. Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl and Ohio State vs. Alabama in the Orange Bowl, with Texas facing Ohio State in the title game. 

The FPI has a projected win-loss record of 10.5-1.8 for Tennessee, giving the Vols a 7% chance to win out, a 13.8% chance to win the SEC and an 80.6% chance to make the playoff. Additionally, they have a 17.8% chance to make it to the national championship game and a 9.2% chance to win the national title. 

Up Next: No. 5 Tennessee at Arkansas, Saturday, October 5

Tennessee moved up to No. 5 in the Associated Press Top 25 and No. 6 in the Coaches Poll on Sunday. The Vols are off this week before going to Arkansas next week. 

Arkansas (3-1), coming of a win at Auburn on Saturday, hosts Texas A&M this week. The Razorbacks are ranked No. 23 in the FPI and No. 32 in the SP+. 

ESPN’s Matchup Predictor gives Tennessee an 81.0% chance to beat Arkansas. The Razorbacks opened the season with a 70-0 win over Arkansas Pine Bluff then led 21-7 late in the first half a week later at Oklahoma State, before losing 39-31 in double overtime. 

UAB led 17-3 early at Arkansas two weeks ago, but the Hogs rallied for a 37-27 win. Arkansas led 7-0 at halftime Saturday at Auburn and put the game away on a Ja’Quinden Jackson 1-yard touchdown run with 3:38 to go.

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