Trump is unlikely to get a last-minute Electoral College change that would have helped him win the election

• Donald Trump’s last-minute push to change Nebraska law was dealt a major setback.
• On Monday, a key holdout said he would not support making Nebraska a winner-take-all state.
• Trump wants to close off Kamala Harris’ ability to win a potentially major Electoral College vote in the Omaha area.

Former President Donald Trump’s efforts to foil Vice President Kamala Harris’ easiest path to the White House hit a major roadblock in Nebraska.

On Monday, state Sen. Mike McDonnell announced he remains opposed to changing Nebraska law to award the state’s five electoral votes by winner-take-all, despite a renewed push by US Sen. Lindsey Graham and other Trump allies.

“Elections should be an opportunity for all voters to be heard, no matter who they are, where they live, or what party they support,” McDonnell said in a statement released by his office. “I have taken time to listen carefully to Nebraskans and national leaders on both sides of the issue. After deep consideration, it is clear to me that right now, 43 days from Election Day, is not the moment to make this change.”

Nebraska Republicans dominate the state’s politics, including its officially non-partisan, one-house legislature. The Nebraska Examiner reported that without McDonnell, Republicans have “no path” unless a Democrat or nonpartisan lawmaker changes their mind.

Gov. Jim Pillen, a Republican, has vowed only to call a special session of the legislature if public commitments from at least 33 senators are needed to overcome a filibuster. If McDonnell changed his mind, Trump allies hoped that other senators on the fence would follow him.

Instead, McDonnell, widely believed to be harboring ambitions to run for Mayor of Omaha, said he would support putting the issue before Nebraska voters via a constitutional amendment in a future election.

Trump’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Over the summer, one of his campaign managers said they continued pushing to change Nebraska law.

“Watch what’s going on in Omaha,” Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita told Politico on the sidelines of the GOP national convention. “That ain’t over yet.”

Harris’ easiest path to the White House only works with the status quo.

Nebraska and Maine are the only states that award some of their Electoral College votes by congressional district. In 2020, President Joe Biden carried the Omaha-area 2nd District and its one Electoral College vote. Republicans are worried that the district, represented by a Republican in Congress, Rep. Don Bacon, is trending away from them.

Harris and Trump are headed for an extremely close election. If she carries the Omaha-area vote, she could win by holding onto Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — the so-called “Blue Wall” states. In that scenario, Harris could lose the other four swing states, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina, and still win the Electoral College 270 to 268. Without the Omaha-area vote, the same scenario would result in a 269 to 269 tie, throwing the election to the US House of Representatives, which would almost certainly result in a Trump victory.

Before Biden dropped out of the race, the Blue Wall and Nebraska’s so-called “Blue Dot” was considered his only path to reelection. Harris has made Democrats more competitive in states like North Carolina and Nevada, but polling in those and other swing states shows very little separating the two major candidates.