• Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a government shutdown just weeks before the election.
• He pressed them to force the passage of a bill to require proof of citizenship to register to vote.
• They tried that plan last week, and it failed. So now they’re moving ahead without it.

House Speaker Mike Johnson is teeing up a vote this week on a bill to fund the government for the next few months.

The so-called “continuing resolution,” which will fund the government at current levels through December 20, also includes an additional $231 million for the Secret Service in the wake of two recent attempts to assassinate former President Donald Trump.

Yet Johnson, and any other Republican who votes for this bill, will be quietly defying Trump’s wishes just weeks before the 2024 election.

Trump wanted Republicans to threaten a shutdown

Government funding is set to expire on September 30, and lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been working to come to an agreement on how to keep the lights on.

In a bid to appease his party’s right flank, Johnson first tried to pass a bill that would have funded the government through March and included legislation known as the “SAVE Act,” which would require people to produce proof of citizenship when they register to vote in federal elections.

Democrats almost unanimously oppose that bill, and there’s no evidence of widespread non-citizen voting in federal elections. But the measure was seen as enticing for hardline conservatives, who typically don’t support short-term funding bills.

Last Wednesday, Trump entered the fray, writing on Truth Social that Republicans “should not agree to a Continuing Resolution in any way, shape, or form” if doesn’t include the SAVE Act.

In essence, Trump asked Republicans to threaten a government shutdown over the provision. Yet when the continuing resolution with the SAVE Act came up for a vote last week, it failed, with 14 Republicans voting against it.

So on Sunday, Johnson pivoted, writing in a letter to colleagues that “an alternative plan is now required.”

Many Republicans simply don’t want to have this fight right now

Despite Trump’s push, Republicans on Capitol Hill understand that actually following his lead would be reckless.

As Johnson wrote in his letter, “shutting the government down less than 40 days from a fateful election would be an act of political malpractice.”

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made a similar point last week, telling reporters it would be “politically, beyond stupid” to shut down the government and that “certainly” Republicans would be blamed.

It’s also the latest example of how Trump, despite having a firm grip over the party as a whole, isn’t always the most influential voice among Republicans on Capitol Hill.

It’s certainly possible that most Republicans will vote against Johnson’s new government funding bill. It’s happened several times since Republicans took control of the House in 2023.

But the chances of a shutdown before the election are now essentially zero.

The bill is expected to pass the House this week, after which it will easily pass the Senate (though some Republicans may drag out the process) and head to President Joe Biden’s desk for his signature.